This is the first time I am writing a piece like this. If you enjoy it let me know by liking or retweeting this on twitter.
I think it is a good exercise that I can do to help the fantasy community think and play better by going over the ownership levels for that weeks tournament after lineup lock.
First we take a look at the screenshot from: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/golfownership
As we can see there were not any crazy differences this week between Projected Ownership, and Actual Ownership. The ownership was expected to be very spread out this week, but there are still some very head scratching ownership levels this week.
HOW WERE THEY NOT MORE OWNED:
Sungjae Im
Actual Ownership 13.5%
There were three golfers that came in checking all of the boxes this week. Im was one of them. He was priced at a price where he should have been a natural starting point for most people in their builds. When the week started I would have guessed that he would have been the most owned player on the slate. This is due to the fact that he was the lowest priced safe play with winning upside.
Brian Harman
Actual Ownership 11.7%
Now I do get how people would see Harmans name, and be scared off from clicking him name into a build. But Harman was another one of those golfers that was too good of a play on paper, at too good of a price point not to end up more on naturally. He had been better than Cameron Tringale with better course history yet Tringale ended up being the 5h most owned player on the slate.
Keegan Bradley
Actual Ownership 8%
Easily the biggest shock to me was Keegan's ownership, and this is mostly due to the fact that Cameron Tringale is almost double the ownership of him. They were basically the exact same play this week. I am guessing that people thought he might have a bit of a mental hurdle to climb after his failed win attempt last week. This is more shocking because of Tringale's ownership compared to Keegan's.
WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?:
LINEUP CONTRUCTION
It was very shocking to me to see Hovland, Rahm, Zalatoris, and JT as the 4 most owned players on this slate. This was very much a difficult slate to fit in multiple players into your builds from the High Tier price point range. With that we did not see that any players from the value tier be over 10% owned. Justin Suh should have been 20% owned with the ownerships listed below. The roster construction to me was the biggest head scratcher this week. It was clear that going more of a balanced approach was the way to go this week due to the lack of good Low Tier price point plays, and due to the fact that we had Whaley / Suh as value plays you could fit into your build if you choose to fit one stud.
OWNERSHIP DO OVERS:
It was extremely shocking to see Matt Wallace, Max Homa, Rory all be over 10% owned this week. This goes to show you that PGA DFS players have been taking a much more risky approach to there lineup constructions this week. Homa was defending champ who defending champs for some reason this year have been struggling. Rory was a complete shock. The man has been really bad recently. I could see throwing him in 1 of 20 lineups maybe if you like him that much a player. But if you wanted to play Rory you should have just played Rickie. Because you were playing Rory for his course history and his name. In which Rickie would check both of those boxes.
Both you will see a picture of better options priced at their same price points ranges. (Webb did W/D so lucky on those people)
Webb was priced $200 more than Rory, but Webb was checking all the boxes, and was the clear play over Rory.
Matt Wallace was interesting to see get spiked up that much. He ranked top 30 in the model so not a fade by any means but to be the 6th highest owned player on the slate is a complete shock. Glover was priced $300 more than Wallace, but was a better stat fit, had better course history, and was in just as good recent form. Granted there were a lack of great plays here, so I could see how "Group Thought" could come into play, and spike Wallace's ownership up more than it should have been.
Max Homa over Sungjae, and Harman was shocking. Homa did rank out well top 12 this week in the Model but just basic roster construction mad him tough to end up on. You had Ancer, Niemann, Im, and Harman priced by or near Homa who were all better plays.
This is not to say that these players won't do well this week but over the long term you want to be making the correct clicks when it comes to your lineup.
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