Wyndham Championship 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Jul 30
- 7 min read
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is a week on paper that is pretty ugly for DFS purposes. We are practically getting no safe plays, and that is echoed in the betting odds being vey spread-out, along with he made cut odds being the lowest I can remember on a per dollar basis. When making lineups the 6/6 % is extremely low, which as always with these types of weeks could end up being a good thing if you get 6/6 as it increases the likelihood of one to have a big week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Good Drive % (GD %) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather should not play a factor this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
tbd
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
We have no core plays this week which furthers why I am calling this week a red week.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
C Bez was a player that I was sleeping on at the start of the week, but the more the week has progressed the more he has seem like an obvious click. The price is the most appealing part, but the good course history, and round into form is also appealing. On top of that if you compare his made cut odds against other around his price tag he stands out a ton.
The biggest concerns with Matt Fitzpatrick, and Keegan Bradley is that they will not pay off their price tag. They are the two best players in the field, and it is not all that close, it is just whether or not they fully show up. Their price makes sense, and it is pretty easy to get them into builds. Just need them to not be a trap like Burns and McNealy were last week.
Harry Hall is interesting, he has terrible course history which is a big knock, but one thing we have seen from this course is that the course history can be a little more random. Hall has tremendous form, and I think treating him as a High Exposure play is probably the correct route to go.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
There are only two players that are being pulled in as Mid Exposure plays who I have went out of my way to roster this week. 1 is Rico Hoey who is more of price point play. He is one of the best stat fits in the field, and he has made 4 straight cuts on tour with a top 10 finish mixed in there. Hoey also had a top 25 finish at this event last year.
The other player is Robert Macintyre who besides defending his title at his "home" tournament has been electric. The issue with him is that he also has poor course history, and to have bad course history at his price is a bit concerning, but other than that he is looking like an elite option not only for DFS but for betting purposes as well.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
To me there is not much of a difference between the Low Exposure Plays, and the Mid Exposure Plays. I see the biggest difference being in the pricing, where we can get some ok values in this Low Exposure range. Given that we are basically being forced into paying up for Keegan, and Fitzpatrick I do like the idea to getting to these golfers that are sub $7,500. Alex Smalley is someone that always pops as a good stat fit, and has been a golfer that has popped a lot this year, but we get him as his home tournament, which makes him slightly more appealing.
Kevin Roy is a good stat fit, that besides one random bad round has been playing very solid golfer for over 3 months now. I think we can trust him again especially at his price.
Victor Perez is one the clear plays that we have this week as well, although he is not a perfect click. He does however rank top 30 or better in all the key metric that we look at. I see him as a very good long-shot bet at over 100/1 on some sites. For DFS I like clicking him to pay up for the higher priced golfers.
Other plays that I like: David Lipsky, William Mouw, Matt Schmid, Antoine Rozner, and Vince Whaley
Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
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