Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Wyndham Championship.
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Ball Striking (BS)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Event History Last 4 Years
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
It is way to easy to make a good build this week thus it will be a week in which I am attacking.
Weather:
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Weather could play a big part in terms of which golfers make the cut and then ultimately win.
It will be worth paying attention to whether or not there is an AM/PM or PM/AM weather advantage.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Aaron Rai
Davis Thompson
Max Greyserman
Sungjae Im
Thomas Detry
Patrick Fishburn
Ben Silverman
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
This is a strange week where you will see that I have a lot of golfers listed as High Exposure Plays, and this is because I could find reasons to knock all of those plays. The reason why I am making Sungjae Im a Core Play is because he is the one golfer that is coming in checking all the boxes this week.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
All of the golfers that I have listed as High Exposure plays all rank out top 12 or betting in recent form rank, that is clearly the appeal here. All of the golfers listed have a made cut streak of at least 3 straight events. The biggest issue with most of the golfers in this range is that they either have one random bad missed cut or they do not have any course history here. (Detry is a bad Stat Fit but has good Course History)
I love every single one of these plays especially at their price, minus Shane Lowry who I do believe is slightly overpriced but he is still the 2nd best play in the model.
Norlander was a late add to the field, and thus a late add into my player pool. It is very rare that we get a golfer added to the field on DK that is this good of a play that is also this cheap. He is a top 7 stat fit, and is in the 20th best form in the field. He has also made 2 out of 3 cuts at this tournament. He looks like a great value play on paper this week.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
All of these plays I consider to be great plays, the issue that I have with them (if you even want to call it an issue) is that they are priced by other golfers that are better plays on paper. In simple you can't play everyone. All of these golfers are golfers that I think could be in contention to win, and they are all golfers that could win. They are all just a bit too risky for me to consider them Core Plays or High Exposure Plays.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
This range is basically the same as the last range, just a step further down. I think that is what is unique about this weeks tournament is that we have so many strong options that I think in GPPs we really should be spreading out our ownerships. If you like some of these golfers slightly more than some of the golfers I have already listed I would not blame you. These all look like good plays on paper as well.
This has been the hardest week for me to "rank" golfers as we just have a lot of great options, and even more so a lot of terrible options that make everyone else good options.
Lower Exposure
High priced golfers that I will be underweight on from the field but still want exposure to, and more GPP only plays.
Takeaways:
Min Woo Lee, and Luke Clanton are good GPP upside plays that I do want to get exposure to, as I think both could present top 5 upside. They both have a recent missed cut though.
Patrick Rodgers would be a great play if his course history wasn't terrible, but he still looks like a good enough option at his price.
Power is someone I worry that I am sleeping on, he is basically a good enough play across the board, and at a cheap price tag.
I am chasing the course history with Webb and Hadley.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Sungjae, Greyserman, Norlander, Lowry, Detry, Fishburn, Silverman, Rai, Thompson
GPP: Billy Ho, Si Woo, Vegas, Meissner, Young, Clanton, Woo Lee
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Now $500 dollars is a lot to have left over but I do really like the lineup this week. Norlander should not be that cheap, and the rest of the plays should all be safe options that also present some good upside.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
I would say the golfers that are coming in over valued and under valued make sense. Again this week is a week in which I think ownership should be spread out.
Opmerkingen