The first PGA DFS Event since the Quarantine is here! We have the Charles Schwab Challenge, played at Colonial Country Club. The tournament named has changed over the years, but the course has stayed this same. This helps us to be able to dial into which stats we should be looking at. That being said I do have some concerns that I will touch on first. The golfers have not played competitively in months. This really reminds me of the fall swing. There’s a great article that a 925 member pointed out to me after I wrote this, it goes more in depth then what I will touch on below. If you want to see the numbers/stats behind what I am about to say clink this link: https://www.pgatour.com/news/2020/05/27/pga-tour-15th-club-charles-schwab-challenge-long-layoff.html if not simply carry onto the article.
The fall swing is typically harder to “predict” simple due to one thing, VARIANCE! It’s pretty simple to sum up why variance occurs more during the Fall Swing as expose to the middle of the season. Golfers have not played as much typically, and when they have played it has not really been the full field tournament events they are used to grinding out. It naturally takes people a while to get back into a rhythm, and golfers are no expectation. This leads to golfers playing less consistent as they typically would, which makes their data less reliable. Current Form is tough to gauge early on, and the stats we are pulling in becomes slightly too old because it is not reflecting how the golfer is playing currently. Rather it is reflecting how a golfer can play. There’s still an advantage to looking at stats, but all in all the fact that the golfers haven’t played competitively in months really evens out the playing field. During the fall we saw a lot of the top names simply have an off week, and miss the cut. We really realize what makes those golfers great, it’s that they can typically find out what went wrong, and make corrections very easily! It normally does not hinder their golf game for more than one event. We see this a ton in the fall swing. The fall swing had mixed results for 925 where we hit a ton of long shot winners, as High, Core, or Mid Exposure plays, but we were also hit with the Variance, where one of the odds on favorites, and good stat fits would miss the cut. It is not really something that can be avoided in cash games, but for PGA DFS players that multi enter you simply factor in the variance slightly more.
Should note as well during the fall swing, the plays that were given were correct, the problem comes down to ownership levels. With the amount of variance that takes place ownership levels from one tier to the next should not be as spread out, as they typically would.
Most of the events during our first month in half will be “Red” weeks. This means we will not be able to attack them as much as we would like. But this is going to end up being a great thing later on this PGA Season where we are met with a ton of great tournaments later on in the year. This will be much easier to win in and attack! We are going to do our homework now to be able to win big later on too!
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Now to get into this tournament, like I said Tournaments have been Colonial Country Club for years. We know exactly what to look at statically. It is a course where the fairways can be hard to hit, 11 out of the last 12 years it has ranked inside the top 15 courses of fairways to hit. It also ranks as one of the most 3 putted courses as well. This means we are going to be looking at Fairways Hit %, and Total Putting. Other Stats we will be looking at is Ball Striking, Total Driving, and GIR.
One piece of information I would like to start to include in this write up is highlighting some great bets. Two bets that really are sticking out to me are both Harris English and Billy Horschel both at +8000. Matthew NeSmith, and Jim Furyk, are all long shot bets at over +10000. All 5 players game fits this course, and all of them have great course history minus NeSmith. (NA). Daniel Berger, Webb Simpson, and Rory are all higher-end bets that I would be comfortable making.
Rory, and Rahm have been in a league of their own basically this whole year. You can and should pay up for them in builds if possible. (this is actually the exact same thing I wrote for the players)
Webb Simpson: Webb is the exact type of player that should do well at this course. He is the best stat fit in the field this week. He should be priced after both Rahm, and Rory, but for some reason, DK does not like him. This will be to our benefit. Now maybe he won't be as sharp as he was prior to the break, but he is a guy whose game always seems to be good enough to make the cut. This makes me like Webb, even more, this week.
Sungjae Im: We have seen from Sungjae that he is one of the steadiest players in the game of golf. As in he does not really have hot or cold streaks in his game. That is why I like him this week. He should be a player that we can count on to make the cut. Im played this event last year but he missed the cut. He is however a top 10 fit this week. I love the price discount we get with Im this week.
Collin Morikawa: Morikawa is really the only other High Tier Play I like. He has made 21 straight cuts dating back to last season, and he is a top 20 play this week. If it wasn't for his horrible putting (ranked 192 in total putting) he would be extremely more appealing. If he gets hot with his putter he should make a run at a top 10. If he is cold with his putter this could end up being his first missed cut.
Gary Woodland: Gary's price point is one thing that shocked me. He should be a high tier play. I am guessing it is because of his lack of course history that he is not. Still 5 of Woodland's made cuts this year have been top 10 finishes. He is the 3rd best play on the board this week according to my model.
Matt Kuchar: Besides his trip back to Hawaii Matt Kuchar has actually been very solid making 7 out of 9 cuts with all but one of those made cuts being outside of T22 or better. Kuchar has good course history here sporting an average finish of 16th. He is a strong play ranking top 20 in the model. He also excels at Total Putting, GIR, and Fairways Hit %.
Billy Horschel: Billy Ho, is back, and he is once again very cheap, cheaper than he should be. I like Horschel a lot at this price point he is a proven cut maker throughout his career. I believe that will give him an advantage this week. He has made the cut 2/2 times in the last 4 years with a 19th, and 34th finish. He is a top 12 stat fit, and ranks top 15 in the model this week. He should be a strong play to make the cut.
Harris English: English OUR BOY! has great course history here with an average finish of 17th (in 3 starts). He is an elite stat fit ranking 3 in stats and 4th overall in the model. He has been a stud this year as well. He has missed one cut at 10 out of 11. HALF of his finishes have been top 10 finishes. English should be priced at the 8K range.
Daniel Berger: Berger was having a great bounce-back year in his career prior to the season getting postponed. He has made 8 out of 9 cuts and finished with three straight top 10 finishes. He is a top 10 stat fit this week but gets knocked in the model slightly due to his missed cut at this event in 2018. Berger makes for a great GPP play this week.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin is another strong play this week. Heck you could anchor your lineup this week with Horschel, English, Berger, and Hadwin and be set up pretty well. Hadwin has finished 52, 53, and 22nd in 3 starts at this event. He sort of been playing poorly before the break, but still has been making cuts 7/8 on the year. Hadwin is an elite stat fit, and 5th in the model ranking this week. I see him as someone who has a high likelihood to make the cut.
Brian Harman, Danny Lee, and Jim Furyk are other plays that I like in this price range.
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Adam Long, CH3, Lanto Griffin, Lucas Glover, Chesson Hadley, Mark Hubbard, and Chris Kirk
Matthew NeSmith: Nesmith is a top 10 player in the model this week. All of his stats are T54 or better. He has been a value play that we have been on a ton this year, and he is a value play again this week. If we need to dip into the value tier NeSmith is a great starting point.
Scott Piercy: Piercy has good course history, and is a decent stat fit as well. Before break his game was really starting to come back around!
Brendon Todd: DK forgot what Todd had done in the Fall Swing, or really just this season. Sure this break could reset him back down to earth, but we just do not know that yet. Todd is a strong putter and will pepper the fairways. His only course history was a missed cut 4 years ago.
Chad Campbell: Now yes this is a horrible play, but if you want to chase upside at a low cost Campbell could be year guy. He is strong course history make 3 straight cuts including a top 10 finish in 2016. He also is a strong stat fit. he is a great putter, and is 3rd in FH%. I think he makes sense for at least 1 stud and dud build. But do not go crazy.
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: WEBB, BERGER, WOODLAND, HADWIN, BILLY HO, SUNGJAE, KUCHAR
GPP: BERGER, NESMITH, ENGLISH, FURYK, CAMPBELL
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.