Last week our 3 core plays (Rory, Hatton, and Bubba) had an average finish of 9th. Overall our top 12 plays had an average finish of 16th. DJ and Webb Simpson were the only plays not to hit or exceed value.
The top 3 value plays had an average finish of 19th. With Ortiz and Munoz finishing inside T16.
The player pool, and content for WGC Event was really dominant, but like I warned you about the randomness that is associated with No Cut events makes it a lot harder to have a great week even with great plays.
The Puerto Rico Open was the Alternate event last week. Our top play Matthew NeSmith finished T6. There was only one MC from our Core – Mid Exposure plays. Meaning that 93 % of those plays made the cut. The only MC coming from Zac Blair who missed the cut by one stroke, and really his tournament was ruined by one shot on one hole where he had a triple bogey. (Made Par on the hole in round 2).
The form keeps trending upwards for 925, and I think this will finally be the week that it all comes together for a HUGE week. Feels a lot like Lanto Griffin, or Sebastian Munoz when we pegged them to be top plays when they won: form was trending in the right direction, and everything was lining up for them that week. That is the week we have this week!
We made it through the “rough” stretch of the season, and can finally go out and attack slates, and that is exactly what I will be doing this week. Both on the full slate, and the showdown slates.
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Bogey Avoidance (BA), and GIR
This Week's Strategy:
Cash: I keep ending up on a lineup where I can only get 4 out 6 across the cut line. That is partially due to DK's pricing, and partially due to the event. I think 4 out of 6 will be the norm this week. But I wish I could find a way to get 5/6 with good confidence, but I have been unable to do so just yet. The lineups that I like the most I end up being +$200 over.
GPP: I love the Low Tier value that we have this week, I will be mix and matching a ton of builds, and I will probably submit around 50 total lineups this week.
Slate Confidence: Yellow - This was almost a Green week, but due to some sharp pricing on the High Tier, and with some other plays it is only a Yellow week. Still this will be an event that I attack aggressively.
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
Tommy Fleetwood is going to be extremely low owned it seems this week. While a lot of people are complaining about his price this week I completely get it. Out of all the players on the High Tier he is the one we would all choose as the least likely to miss the cut.
Rickie Fowler: Rickie has great Course History here finishing, T2, MC, 1st, and T6. Yes the random missed cut is worrisome for a player priced up this high, but still love the upside here. He is also one of the best stat fits this week, with really no weakness in his game at this course. Rickie doesn’t have the best current form as well: T37, MC, T10, and T5. I really hope that the time off got Rickie right, and he is good to go this week.
Gary Woodland: The last time that Gary was this good of a play he missed the cut. Since that missed cut he has finished T40, and T12. His game just sets up so well for this course. Ranking Top 5 in Total Driving, Ball Striking, and BA. He also is 11th in GIR. So take are top 4 stat this week and he is on average ranks 5th. He has not missed a cut here in the last 4 years. Has an average finish of 37th. Really wish we had a little bit more upside with him as a play this week.
Billy Horschel: My biggest worry with Horschel this week is that I get this feeling he could be the play this week that is the right play, but ends up missing the cut by one. When I have said this in the past month or so those players have somehow missed the cut. (Blair, Furyk, Bubba, Gary, Etc). He is the right play this week though, and I just can't pass him up especially at this price point. He has made the cut in his last 3 events, with two straight top 10 finishes. He is also hit the ball extremely well! Top 25 in Total Driving, Ball Striking, and Strokes Gained total. He ranks 45th in GIR, and top 10 in Total putting. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts here. The cuts he made he finished T16, T4, and T8.
Sungjae Im, and Shane Lowry make for great pivot plays this week. They are both top 20 plays this week, and both are striking the ball well, and are top 40 in BA.
Daniel Berger: Berger has finished T36, T29, MC, and MC here in the last 4 years. Mixed results, and typically I would worry about having a core play with only 50 % made cuts at an event. But Berger has been in great form this whole year. He has only 1 missed out and that was a horrible performance. He is a top 10 stat fit, and top 12 overall play in my model this week. He really does not have a weakness in his game right now.
Corey Conners: Conners on the season is the top "Wind" player in the field. Right now the mph Winds are from 10 - 16 the whole week. So if those numbers go up I believe are Conner shares should go out. He is a great Total Driver, and great Ball Striker. He is also 5th in GIR. The worry is that he is 81st in BA. He finished T59 here in 2018.
Russell Knox: Like Conners Knox is a great wind player, and I would elevate my shares if the mph goes up. I am close to putting him in my cash lineup this week, but I typically like to play someone that is checking all the boxes (Current Form, Course History, and Stat Fit). He is only checking the stat fit box this week. He is however a top 10 stat fit. His Course History here is T51, MC, MC, and T26. Still figuring out what I will do with him, but the good thing this week is that the Low Tier is loaded.
Adam Schenk: Schenk I like a ton this week, and if I do not end up on Knox in cash I think I will end up on Schenk as he is checking all the boxes. He has a T30, and a T29 here. He is a top 20 stat fit, and has made the cut in his last 3 starts. Still I feel like we are still paying up a bit too much for Schenk.
Brian Harman: Harman is just a worse stat fit of Knox, just in better form. I do like him this week, but I wish he was striking the ball a bit better.
Harry Higgs, Matthew NeSmith, and Doc Redman: I am group these 3 together because there is not a difference in them on paper. They are all rated top 15 in my model this week, and are all top 15 stat fits as well. They are all in great form as well all making at least their last 3 cuts. Now I think I will have more of NeSmith, just because he has been playing better longer, and also because he has been a strong wind player this year.
Jim Furyk: Furyk is another part of the puzzle this week as well. He has great course history finishing T9, and T46 here in the last four years. He is a top 20 stat fit, and a top 25 play overall. He ranks 1st in GIR, and 57th in BA. I do not mind the idea of dropping down to Furyk in cash this week.
Tim Wilkinson: Wilkinson I like because of his recent form, he has made 6 out of his last 7 cuts. He also ranks out has a good stat fit ranking top 25. I think he should make the cut this week thus I like him as a value play.
Stat Pull
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course. Stat Fit is the second column from the end, Model Rank is the last column.
MODEL RANKING:
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.
PLAYER POOL:
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: HORSCHEL, BERGER, ENGLISH, NESMITH, FURYK
GPP: HIGGS, REDMAN, DAVIS, VARNER, HOVLAND, AND VEGAS
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Just joined your crew. Like your thoughts and strategy. Thanks for doing this. Tyler going to make cut and kick some butt!
McCumbers form is good. Feel like it's not worth the risk this week. Don't want to go out of my way to talk you out of him as a play though.
I really like McCumber this week. Ponte Vedra bred guy. Solid form. Thoughts?
@TheWho13 Core plays are the plays that I will go out of my way to play regardless of contest being entered. Essentially the higher they are rated the more likely they are to hit value, and make the cut. For me I build from the Core, then High Exposure, then Mid Exposure, then Low Exposure. I do it this way, because I never know exactly where peoples builds will finish up.
With the core plays , do you use them for GPP? Or are the core plays mainly for cash ?