The Great, The Good, and the Bad.
The Great: is that we had Daniel Berger pegged as one of the best plays this week, even had him on the betting card. Berger ended up winning the tournament last week. Making it 12 out of 17 tournaments that the Winner has been established as a clear cut play by 925. (excludes WGC, and other nonfull tournament field events). We also had Gary Woodland T9, Collin Morikawa Runner up, and Sungjae Im Top 10. All 4 plays were marked as a top 10 play this week in the player pool. On a normal week hitting those plays at our ownerships would normally mean we had a great week, but this was not a normal week, and we knew that going into it. Matthew NeSmith was a "deep" value play that was 1% owned on the slate. It was easy to peg him as a guy that would make the cut.
The Good: We knew that last week would have a ton of variance, you just didn't know where it would come from. Knowing when, and when not to play a lot money/lineups is a key factor that we hit on last week!
The Bad: Two of the top 3 highest owned players on the slate missed the cut. They were both Core Plays as well. Webb Simpson, and Harris English. Webb had his worst putting performance in his last 14 starts. This should be easily correctable for him. English finished T68, just outside the cut line. Matt Kuchar also finished T68, but it was the way he finished that hurt. A double-bogey on 18 caused him to miss the cut. If Kuchar makes the cut it would have been a very solid week.
This Week: RBC Heritage Week typically is a harder event for the golfers, and thus harder to predict for PGA DFS, add that onto the fact that this is only the 2nd week back. There is still going to be some "random" results. Last week it was super easy to nail down what the great plays were, but last week there was a ton of good plays, and not many bad plays. This week we have a ton have good plays, a lacking amount of great plays, and a fair amount of bad plays. Typically this course plays a lot more different, especially when the winds pick up, this can lead to a tee time advantage. (If it does we can attack the slate via Showdown)
This week will be another low entry week as well.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
KEY STATS: Driving Accuracy (DA), GIR, Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), Total Putting (TP)
Take what I said last week about last week's course, and times that by 2. The Fairways are very hard to hit. Golfers will need to club down. The greens are also protected well, and are typically very hard to hit as well.
Xander, Webb, Hatton are all players that I like on the top end of the betting card sitting at +2000, +3000, and +4000. Ian Poulter at +5500, Billy Ho at +6600 are both find mid range bets. I really like the long shots here this week though with Adam Hadwin +12500, Harris English +15000, Scott Piercy +20000, and Matthew NeSmith +25000.
I am fine paying up for Rory, JT, and Bryson if you have the salary left over. I also think Rahm will bounce back as well, I do not think we have to go out of our way to get them this week simply due to the lack of "Elite" value plays.
Xander Schauffele: Sure Xander Clutched up, then Choked, and we do not know how that will really affect him mentally, and sure he is priced up not too. But I like him as a play this week. He has two made cuts here a 63, and 32. His DA lacks a little bit as well, but he makes up for it with some clutch saves, ranking top 9 in bogey avoidance. Xander has made 9 out of 10 cuts on the year, and has an average finish of 11th in those 9 made cuts.
Hideki Matsuyama: I am slightly worried about Hideki, because we have not seen him recently. He can struggle with his putter as well. Still, he is a strong wind player and has only missed 1 cut on the year. Hideki is the "Shoulder Shrug" play this week where if you end up on him you don't overthink it, but you don't go out of your way to get him.
Webb Simpson: Webb's struggles came down to his putter. I believe he will easily be able to correct that issue this week. Webb has made the cut here 4 straight years in a row including 3 straight top 16 finishes. He still ranks out as a top 3 play this week. I am not sure if we can play him in cash because of the way he played last week, but he does make for a great GPP play. I hope people jump ship and we get him at a cheap ownership.
Daniel Berger: Berger is coming off of a win last week, typically this means we just cross that player off for their next event. For some reason or another they always play poorly, and barely ever out produce their salary. This is obviously a little different, he had the last 2 in a half months off, I'd assume he is in the right mindset this week again. He finished 33rd here last year, and still is a great stat fit. His lowest stat is 51st with GIR. He has made the last 7 cuts, and is a top 10 play this week. If he had just produced a top 10 finish last week and not won he would be a core play.
Gary Woodland: Once again I am shocked at Woodland's price point. He is one of the best wind players in the game, and overall ranks out perfect for this event. He is 1st in BS, TD, and 7th in GIR, and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. He has made 9 out of 10 cuts, and 6 of them have been top 10 finishes. He doesn't have course experience here in the last 4 years which is my only concern. Still, he makes for a great play at a great price point.
Matt Kuchar: The double bogey on 18 hurt a lot, but now we still get Kuchar cheap this week where he has great course history. He has an average finish of 11th here in his last 4 starts. He is normally great at Bogey Avoidance, and keeping the ball in the fairway. Last week though he could not find the fairway. If that continues this week he could miss the cut again.
Tyrell Hatton: Hatton actually ranks out as a top 5 play this week. He also is a great wind player as well. He has a MC, and a 29th finish here in two starts. He has made "13" straight cuts on the PGA Tour, and has not had a bad finish this season. His 4 starts on the year have an average finish of 6th place. 6TH PLACE!! Now yes that is a small sample size, and is why his stats are a little juiced up, but he still makes for a great play at this price point.
Billy Horschel: Billy Ho once again is are Low Tier set it and forget it. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts here including a 5th finish in 2018. He has made 6 straight cuts on tour, and is a top 15 play this week. Simply put he is a golfer that ranks out really well to make the cut this week. Given his price point, and the variance we have once again this week that makes Billy Ho a great play.
Harris English: English is a perfect example last week of the industry forcing us into a play. He was the right play at his price point last week, just sometimes it doesn't work out. Still a T68 finish for someone that has been a stud the whole season, with really 0 "bad rounds" I will double down on that any day. Shake off the rust and go get them this week Harris!!! Should note he has made 2 straight cuts at this event, and he ranks out as a top 10 play. We know he could be right around the cut line, but has the upside to finish top 10. English has also been a great win player this year.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin was actually the first play I highlighted this week. (Which is actually a little bit scary). I like him for 4 reasons, Price Point, Course History, Stat Fit, and "Recent Form" He is typically a great wind player as well. I feel like DK is forcing us into this play this week again, because he checks all the boxes.
Scott Piercy: Piercy is has been a cut make for the past two seasons. But this season has not been as good as last. He has not been hitting the ball as well has he was last year, and he is making more bogeys this year. But he has good course history finishing 3, in 2019, and 16th in 2018. This is a course that should suit him well. He makes for a fine low owned GPP play.
Poulter, Kisner, Dahmen, Cauley, Harman, Noren, and Harman are all plays like as well.
OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Adam Long, CH3, Lanto Griffin, Lucas Glover, Chesson Hadley, Mark Hubbard, and Chris Kirk
Matthew NeSmith: NeSmith continued to look good last week, which means that he definitely deserves a price decrease... He still ranks out extremely well this week as a top 15 play, and still ranks out as someone that should make that cut. When we are looking at value plays all we care about is a made cut, thus Nesmith is a strong play again this week. Also he had been a great wind player this year as well.
Doc Redman: Redman is essentially the same play as NeSmith, but has the course history. Redman finished T50 here in 2018. He has made 12 out of 16 cuts on the year. Although he really hasn't had that much upside. His weakness is his putting where he ranks T141. His strength is Total Driving, and Ball Striking ranking Top 16 in both. Thus he doesn't make many bogeys ranking 24 if BA.
Denny McCarthy: I always try to find out the bottom of the barrel play that could make the cut just in case someone loves a build but they do not have much salary left over. McCarthy is one of the best putters on tour this season ranking 2nd in Total Putting. He typically finds the fairway as well. He has made 12 out of 14 cuts. (Although his last 3 starts have been 66th finish, MC, and MC.)
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Billy Ho, Woodland, Hadwin, English, Hideki, Webb, ZJ.
GPP: Webb, Hatton, Kuchar, and Piercy.
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.